AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The Atlantic, in an article, explained the "madman theory" and its applicability to Trump.
The Atlantic writes, "The most important thing to understand about the 'madman theory' in foreign policy is that it is a strategy designed by losers for losers."
The world first heard the term "madman theory" in the 1978 memoirs of H.R. Haldeman, the former chief of staff to President Richard Nixon. According to Haldeman, Nixon had said, 'I want the North Vietnamese to believe that I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war.' Nixon, faced with a war in Vietnam that he had no hope of winning under normal circumstances, pretended to be mad in order to frighten the North Vietnamese and force them to give him a way out to save face.
No one implements the madman strategy when they feel they are winning. Strong, successful powers emphasize stability and predictability, as do powers that hope to be seen as strong and successful. When China's foreign minister speaks to the world, he uses phrases such as 'China will be a reliable force for stability' and that China 'provides the greatest certainty in this uncertain world.' He understands that true power does not need to boast or shout.
However, those who feel their power is waning may resort to aggression and bluster. During the seven weeks of his war with Iran, Donald Trump has discovered that no amount of force at his disposal will calm global energy markets or improve his declining poll numbers.
He has tried a dual strategy: promising imminent breakthroughs in negotiations while simultaneously issuing increasingly violent threats on social media, ostensibly to accelerate those negotiations. But if this was a madman strategy, it clearly failed to gain him the leverage he was seeking. Everyone could see that Trump wanted a deal more than his Iranian counterparts. A good rule of thumb is that the party that wants the agreement more is the one that is losing.
The madman strategy is for 'non-mad' leaders who find themselves in unfavorable circumstances. It is a strategy based on deception. The madman strategist pretends to be willing to do things that, in reality, he is not willing to do. This approach depends on credibility: rivals must be able to take the threat of extreme action seriously.
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